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Putin could assail Ukraine on February. xvi, Biden told allies
With help from Jacopo Barigazzi, Lili Bayer, Erin Banco and David Herszenhorn
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National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said a full Russian invasion of Ukraine could come up before the end of the Beijing Olympics on Feb. 20, even as President JOE BIDEN today told his counterparts about Moscow's forces possibly launching an incursion in five days.
"Whatever American in Ukraine should exit as shortly as possible, and in any result in the next 24 to 48 hours," he said from the White House podium. "We don't know what'south going to happen, but the chance is now loftier enough, and the threat is at present immediate enough, that this is what prudence demands." There won't be a U.S. armed forces effort to evacuate U.South. citizens from a Ukraine nether siege, Sullivan asserted.
Shortly before Sullivan spoke, PBS NewsHour's NICK SCHIFRIN reported the U.Due south. determined Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN had decided to invade Ukraine and communicated that determination to his forces. Sullivan said the U.Due south. had all the same to decide that Putin took a "final" decision.
Since then, NatSec Daily and our Political leader colleagues have heard differing assessments of what Putin might do.
NatSec Daily was told past a person familiar that President JOE BIDEN told Western leaders about the February. xvi appointment on an hourlong call today.
Russian federation will start a physical set on on Ukraine every bit shortly equally Feb. xvi, multiple U.South. officials confirmed to Politico, and Washington communicated to allies that it could be preceded past a avalanche of missile strikes and cyberattacks. One person said the leaders' phone call indicated that cyberattacks are "imminent" and some other said the intelligence is "specific and alarming." Sullivan mentioned that whatever attack on Ukraine could brainstorm with "aerial bombing and missile attacks."
Europeans, withal, signaled to u.s.a. that they have a different picture.
A U.Yard. official said that "we have a different estimation" of the February. xvi intelligence. Meanwhile, 2 European Wedlock diplomats shared even more skeptical views, with one saying they "still refuse to purchase it. Information technology would be such a mistake by Putin. War is costly, Ukraine will fight them with everything."
Asked whether an invasion is imminent, a senior official from an eastern EU country said it is "difficult to say." The official said that "the chief idea is to exist prepared with sanctions" and that "coordination and unity are fundamental."
It'southward possible the February. sixteen piece of intelligence is raw and non the overall assessment of the United States, which could explain the yawning gap in expectations near just how soon Putin volition assail, if at all.
What is clear is that the tone from the White Business firm is getting more severe — and more resigned — to the idea of Putin ordering a new phase in his war on Ukraine.
BIDEN ANGERED MANY WITH Transitional islamic state of afghanistan Coin Motion: Biden has proceeded to anger just about everyone with his conclusion to divvy upwards Transitional islamic state of afghanistan'south $vii billion in assets frozen in the U.Southward. for humanitarian and legal purposes.
At its cadre, Biden's executive gild says the U.Southward. volition use $3.5 billion of that money to provide desperately needed aid to millions of starving Afghans while directing the other half toward American victims of the ix/11 terrorist attacks.
Moving the money will require U.S. fiscal institutions to transfer property in the United states belonging to Afghanistan's central depository financial institution into a consolidated business relationship held at the Federal Reserve Banking company of New York, according to a White Firm fact sheet. The administration "will seek to facilitate access to $3.5 billion of those assets for the benefit of the Afghan people and for Afghanistan'due south hereafter," awaiting a courtroom ruling.
This immediately led to critical questions about the latter half. Outset, why is the U.S. taking coin from suffering Afghan civilians to pay ix/11 victims? 2nd, how will that money be distributed equitably to the thousands of grieving families involved in years of painstaking litigation?
Most experts we spoke to ripped Biden'south team for taking Afghanistan's coin during ane the worst economical and humanitarian crises on World. "It'south a very callous act. The people of Afghanistan were non responsible" for 9/xi, said VALI NASR, formerly a senior adviser to the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Islamic republic of pakistan. "This is very Trumpian at its core."
"The U.S. government is choosing to inflict commonage punishment on the hapless Afghan people by giving away half of the state's strange exchange reserves. This is unfortunate" and "morally tenuous," ASFANDYAR MIR, a senior practiced at the U.South. Found of Peace, piled on.
The but person we spoke to who supported the movement was LISA CURTIS, old President DONALD TRUMP'due south superlative Afghanistan adjutant on the NSC. It's "a reasonable and sound approach to dealing with the outcome," she texted u.s.a., adding it "represents the kind of artistic approach necessary to address the humanitarian crisis in the country, while avoiding legitimizing or boosting the Taliban."
The assistants says the $three.five billion that will go to help Afghans volition be kept out of the Taliban's hands: "nosotros are going to be ensuring that there are very robust controls in place so that it'south not going to the Taliban; it's going to be used for the benefit of the Afghan people," a senior administration official told reporters anonymously per the NSC's footing rules.
BRETT EAGLESON, son of ix/11 victim BRUCE EAGLESON who speaks on behalf of many nine/11 families, told NatSec Daily that only one of the many ix/11-related cases — the Havlish case — is far enough along for the plaintiffs to get money. A decade ago, the plaintiffs received a judgment of roughly $vii billion in damages, and last yr successfully got a U.S. marshal to serve the Federal Reserve of New York with a "writ of execution" to seize the frozen Afghan assets.
It's therefore possible, Eagleson fears, that all the money will become to the 47 Havlish families and not the thousands of others expecting compensation. Eagleson and other families would prefer the U.S. put that money in a defended fund to more than equitably disperse the billions. "My dad'due south decease is no less valuable than another person's dad'southward decease," he said.
Asked what he thought almost Afghans paying for the 9/11 victims, Eagleson said, "the Afghans had every opportunity to fight dorsum against the Taliban," adding "I don't see how they can claim it as their coin." He also believes the $three.5 billion earmarked for humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan volition virtually likely become to the Taliban.
BIDEN 'REJECTING' CLAIMS ADMIN FAILED AFGHAN EVAC: Biden is "rejecting" assertions past senior military leaders that the assistants failed to adequately prepare for the fall of Transitional islamic state of afghanistan and evacuation.
"That's non what I was told," he said during an NBC News interview that aired Thursday night. Pressed by LESTER HOLT if Biden rejected what U.S. personnel told Army investigators, the president replied "Yes, I am," Biden said. "I am rejecting them."
This comment followed reporting by The Washington Post'southward DAN LAMOTHE and ALEX HORTON about an Ground forces investigation into the Taliban takeover and airlifts out of Kabul airport. Obtained by a Freedom of Information Human action request, the report features commentary from the U.S. armed forces commander of the operation and others stating key members of the White Firm and State Section failed to deed with urgency.
Biden further defended his assistants'south actions. "Expect, in that location's no expert time to get out, but if we had not gotten out, they admit that we would have had to put a hell of a lot more troops back in," the president insisted. "It wasn't simply ii,000, 4,000. Nosotros would take had to significantly increase the number of troops, and and so you're back in this war of attrition."
'NOT MOVED THE NEEDLE': Sweden's Country Secretarial assistant KARIN WALLENSTEEN told NatSec Daily that Russia'south aggression toward Ukraine has "not moved the needle" on her state's considerations of joining NATO.
"In a situation like this, more than ever, stability and predictability is of import," she said in an interview shortly after coming together with her U.South. analogue, national security adviser Jake Sullivan. "Our security policy is set.… Nosotros desire to exist a good, strong partner to NATO, but we're not looking to join."
Wallensteen and her team too said the collective U.Southward.-European response toward the Kremlin depends on what Russia does. "Nosotros need to have different kinds of responses depending on what we are responding to," ane of Wallensteen's aides told us. "It'southward not set."
The state secretary added that planned sanctions on Russia will bite over time and, if Moscow's behavior doesn't change, they will take an upshot "on the full general living conditions in Russia, on the general public, also."
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the cease of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington'southward national security scene prefers to unwind with a beverage.
Today, nosotros're featuring retired Lt. Gen. MIKE NAGATA, formerly the commander of Special Operations Command Primal and now at CACI. Nagata told us he's not a fan of alcohol, then when he winds down he'll pick upwards an ice-common cold ginger ale.
When he'due south sipping on that fizzy goodness, Nagata says he prefers to be "anyplace I can watch a movie or read a volume that allows me brief escape and lark from the real world." We hear ya, general, cheers!
IT'South FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thank you for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This infinite is reserved for the superlative U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care nigh how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO'south national security squad: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
RUSSIA'S NAVAL BUILDUP: Our own PAUL McLEARY reports on the historic naval buildup of Russian ships in the Blackness Sea and Mediterranean — one of the largest seen since the Cold War.
Russian cruisers, submarines and other warships are at present in place to assist the more 100,000 troops stationed along Ukraine's border. "Moscow's opening of a potential new front end to Ukraine'south south came into total view Wednesday, when half-dozen amphibious ships moved into the Blackness Sea as Russian federation declared off-limits swaths of international waters surrounding occupied Crimea and the Ukrainian city of Odessa," McLeary wrote.
"We haven't seen a move similar this in contempo history," in the Black Sea, said retired Adm. JAMES FOGGO, who commanded all U.Southward. and NATO naval forces in Europe until retiring in 2020.
FIVE CHILDREN KILLED IN SYRIA RAID: The U.Due south. special operations forces raid concluding week that killed Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi besides resulted in the deaths of at least five children inside the building, per The Washington Post's OMAR NEZHAT, SARAH DADOUCH, KAREEM FAHIM and JOYCE SOHYUN LEE.
Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY previously said that al-Qurayshi killed a total of three people — his wife and two children — when he detonated a suicide belong on the edifice's third flooring. Kirby also said it "appears as if" a child was killed on the second floor, where al-Qurayshi's lieutenant and his wife barricaded themselves and engaged U.Southward. troops.
The Pentagon has insisted that all deaths during the operation were caused by al-Qurayshi's detonation and the barricaded lieutenant. But Defence Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said in a statement last week that, "given the complexity of this mission, nosotros will accept a look at the possibility our actions may also have resulted in damage to innocent people."
As the Post notes, the Biden assistants "has not explained the discrepancy between its estimate of expressionless children and the tally provided by local get-go responders and UNICEF, who said that as many as six children were killed. The task of arriving at a precise count has been complicated, in role, by the poor state of some of the children's remains."
U.N. SAYS JOURNALISTS DETAINED IN KABUL: The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees announced that two journalists on assignment with the U.N. bureau, likewise as several Afghan nationals working with them, have been detained in Kabul, per Reuters.
"Nosotros are doing our utmost to resolve the situation, in coordination with others. We will brand no further comment given the nature of the situation," UNHCR tweeted.
National Directorate of Security spokesperson KHALIL HAMRAZ said the Taliban administration's security and intelligence bureau has "no information" near the journalists and Afghans, including "when and where they have disappeared." He added that Taliban officials "haven't reached whatsoever data all the same; we are trying to find information."
The Wall Street Journal'south MARGHERITA STANCATI and DION NISSENBAUM afterward reported that the Taliban is holding at least nine foreigners in custody in the Afghan capital letter, including one American and several British citizens. Among that group are the 2 journalists on assignment with UNHCR — a British reporter and an Irish photographer — along with an Afghan journalist and an Afghan driver with whom they were working.
WHITE Firm HUDDLES WITH CHIP INDUSTRY: PETER HARRELL, the National Security Council'south senior director for international economics and competitiveness, has been in contempo contact with chip manufacture leaders, "learning about their exposure to Russian and Ukrainian chipmaking materials and urging them to discover culling sources," per Reuters' ALEXANDRA ALPER and KAREN FREIFELD.
In those talks, White House officials are warning the chip manufacture "to diversify its supply chain" in accelerate of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, "in case Russia retaliates against threatened U.S. consign curbs by blocking access to fundamental materials," Alper and Freifeld write.
U.S. concerns about potential Russian retaliation have ramped upward since a report published earlier this month by Techcet, a market place research group, estimated that more ninety pct of neon supplies used by U.S. semiconductor manufacturers come up from Ukraine, while 35 percent of palladium supplies come from Russia.
U.Due south. VS. France ON Republic of indonesia FIGHTER: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported that a U.S.-France fight over Indonesia's fighter competition burst out into the open when Paris claimed victory, Washington unveiled its latest pitch and Jakarta made clear it'southward non over yet.
On a contempo visit to Jakarta, French Defense Minister FLORENCE PARLY signed a bargain with Defense Minister PRABOWO SUBIANTO for the first of what French President EMMANUEL MACRON announced on Twitter would exist 42 Rafale fighters.
But Subianto clarified that it was just for half dozen fighters and a bigger contract is coming for 36 more shipping. Hours later on, the State Department fabricated the U.Due south. proposal public, announcing it had notified Congress that it approved a $thirteen.9 billion deal for 36 upgraded Boeing F-15 fighters.
Indonesia's "serious drive of defense force procurement" reinforces how Cathay is seen as a "very substantial" threat to the region, said RICHARD ABOULAFIA, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory. However, Indonesia has a long history of kicking the tires on large-ticket conquering programs and non following through.
SENATORS SAY CIA HAS Undercover Drove PROGRAM: Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.G.), members of the Senate Intelligence Committee, merits that the CIA has a undercover program that collects Americans' information.
The lawmakers didn't disclose what was in the program. Merely they did release a declassified and redacted April 2021 letter to top intelligence officials claiming "the CIA has secretly conducted its own bulk plan," authorized under Executive Order 12333, rather than the laws passed by Congress.
The plan is "entirely outside the statutory framework that Congress and the public believe govern this collection, and without any of the judicial, congressional or even executive branch oversight that comes from [Strange Intelligence Surveillance Human action] collection."
Both lawmakers take longed pushed for greater transparency about the U.S. intelligence community's collection practices. "Our letter also stressed that the public deserves to know more about the collection of this data," the lawmakers wrote.
SENATORS OFFER NUCLEAR FUEL BANK: Sens. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) introduced a resolution to provide any Eye Eastern country access to nuclear fuel if it promises not to enrich uranium and reprocess information technology.
"Modeled on the existing nuclear fuel banking company created by the International Diminutive Energy Agency (IAEA), the establishment of a regional fuel bank supported by the resolution would allow the commercial evolution of nuclear ability throughout the region while at the same time eliminating the demand for dangerous and destabilizing domestic nuclear programs," reads a news release of the beak.
The lawmakers say this measure would not merely contain Islamic republic of iran's power to make its beginning nuclear bomb, only also reduce the likelihood of a nuclear arms race in the Centre East.
"This resolution demonstrates there is bipartisan support for a broader, regional diplomatic approach to address Iran's nuclear program from a regional perspective putting forward norms which would allow Western farsi Gulf and other Center Eastern states the power to enjoy the benefits of nuclear ability without fueling nuclear proliferation," Menendez, the Senate Foreign Relations chair, said in a statement.
"There is no reason to enrich uranium if your goal is to have peaceful nuclear power. I believe this proposal will be well-received past our allies in the region and should exist welcomed by Islamic republic of iran if peaceful nuclear power is truly what they want," Graham added.
GOP URGES BIDEN TO REJECT RUSSIA AND China ON INF: In a Feb. 10 letter, height Republicans told Biden to ignore Russian and Chinese demands that the U.Due south. not place intermediate- and short-range missiles in the European and Indo-Pacific theaters, Defense News' JOE GOULD reported.
"We are gravely concerned that any effort to resurrect the INF Treaty or reimpose limitations on ground-launched missiles would catastrophically undermine American national security, encourage Russian aggression, and advance a flawed view of security that sacrifices peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific," read the letter led past Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.).
Signatories include Reps. MICHAEL TURNER (R-Ohio), MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) and MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), respectively the leaders of the Firm Intelligence, War machine and Strange Affairs committees.
SCHAKE SLAMS POTUS ON Russia: KORI SCHAKE, who served on the National Security Council and at the State Section nether former President GEORGE W. Bush'southward assistants, asserts in a New York Times op-ed today that the Biden assistants'south Russia policy has 1 big problem: Joe Biden, himself.
"The insular nature of his decision-making, including his reliance on agreeing advisers, lacks rigorous thinking and fuels a kind of airs that can pb to unforced errors," Schake writes, and Biden's "casual suggestion last month that 'a minor incursion' by Russia might not describe a tough response required mopping up by the administration."
But near of all, Schake takes consequence with Biden'southward repeated annunciation that U.S. troops will not movement into Ukraine to defend the Eastern European country on its ain territory.
"Instead of ruling out U.Southward. military involvement within Ukraine, Mr. Biden could have focused on the fact that the United States and Canada already have forces in Ukraine helping railroad train its military to defend its territory and sovereignty," Schake argues — adding that Biden also "missed an important opportunity to help Americans understand why we should care nearly what happens in Ukraine."
— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MANDY SMITHBERGER is now a defense policy adviser to Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.). She near recently was a director at the Project On Government Oversight and is a Rep. JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.) alum.
— SHIRA EFRON volition get director of research at the State of israel Policy Forum. She currently is a policy adviser at the Israel Policy Forum, as well as a senior boyfriend at the Constitute for National Security Studies, a special adviser on Israel at the RAND Corporation and a consultant with the United nations state team in Jerusalem advising on Gaza access issues.
— RYAN D. MCCARTHY, a former secretary of the Army, is joining the Washington, D.C., function of Syracuse University'south Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Diplomacy as a dean'southward scholar in residence.
— MOHAMMED EL-KURD, The Nation: "Israeli Constabulary & Torture: From Detained Minors to a Prison 'Torture Room'"
— BENJAMIN WALLACE-WELLS, The New Yorker: "The New Doves on Ukraine"
— LOVEDAY MORRIS, The Washington Postal service: "The Sometime Chancellor and Friend of Putin's at the Center of Federal republic of germany's Russia Struggle"
— The Wilson Heart, 9 a.chiliad.: "The Wilson China Fellowship Conference 2022 — with ABRAHAM Denmark, MARK GREEN, DAVID LAMPTON, LAURA ROSENBERGER and STEPHEN DEL ROSSO"
— Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, 11 a.m.: "Press Conference: Veterans, Refugee Advocates, Afghan Evacuees Urge Congress to Pass Afghan Adjustment Act — with NADIA HASHIMI, MIKE JASON, HELAL MASSOMI, HANNA TRIPP, SHAWN VANDIVER, KRISH O'MARA VIGNARAJAH and MATT ZELLER"
— The Project 2049 Found, 12 p.g.: "Taiwan'south Global Gravity: The Push and Pull of Coercive and Annihilative Cantankerous-Strait Scenarios — with IAN EASTON, JOHN GASTRIGHT JR., SHIHOKO GOTO, BI-KHIM HSIAO, LELAND LAZARUS, ERIC LEE, HOWARD 'HOWIE' R. LIND, ELAINE LURIA, MICHAEL MAZZA, GARY J. SCHMITT, RANDALL G. SCHRIVER, STEVEN A. SHAPIRO and MARK STOKES"
— The East-W Center, 1 p.m.: "North Korea and the Middle East: Lessons Learned for U.S.-North korea Relations — with SUZANNE DIMAGGIO, SIEGFRIED HECKER, YAAKOV KATZ, SATU LIMAYE and KEITH LUSE"
Have a natsec-axial upshot coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-side by side or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot u.s.a. an email at [e-mail protected] or [e-mail protected] to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.
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Source: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/02/11/putin-could-attack-ukraine-on-feb-16-biden-told-allies-00008344
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